Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising has officially arrived, and it brings intense battles to the Pokémon TCG as the bustling city is thrown into havoc by Mega Floette ex. Filled with determination, Mega Greninja ex leads the charge alongside other powerful Mega Evolutions—like Mega Pyroar ex and Mega Dragalge ex—to ward off the threat.
Because this set features the highly anticipated return of Mega Greninja, the hype is incredibly high. But before you start ripping open booster packs, you need to know exactly how hard it is to pull those top-tier hits.
Based on massive sample sizes of real pack openings, we have broken down the exact pull rates you can expect from Chaos Rising.
The Best Chase Cards in Chaos Rising
The absolute crown jewel of Chaos Rising is without a doubt the Mega Greninja ex Special Illustration Rare (SIR), alongside its elusive Mega Hyper Rare gold variant. Greninja is a massive fan-favorite, making these the highest investment priorities in the set.
Beyond Greninja, collectors are aggressively hunting for the stunning Special Illustration Rare of Mega Floette ex, as well as gorgeous Illustration Rares for classic Pokémon like Crobat and Claydol.
Expected Hit Rates in Chaos Rising
Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising is a standard English expansion, meaning there are no strict guarantees in a single booster box. In fact, the pull rates are officially slightly tougher than some previous Paldean sets, with an expected hit (Double Rare or higher) coming in roughly 1 out of every 3.5 packs.
If you are opening standard booster packs, here are the statistical odds of pulling a hit from the Rare or Reverse Holo slots.
Chaos Rising Pull Rates Chart
| Card Type | Ratio | Percent Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare (Regular ex) | 1:5 (1 in 5 packs) | 20.30% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 1:9 (1 in 9 packs) | 10.66% |
| Ultra Rare (Full Art / Supporter) | 1:12 (1 in 12 packs) | 8.29% |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 1:83 (1 in 83 packs) | 1.21% |
| Mega Hyper Rare (Gold) | 1:956 (1 in 956 packs) | 0.10% |
(Note: Pulling the ultimate chase card is brutal this time around. The odds of pulling the specific Mega Hyper Rare Mega Greninja ex from a single pack are a tiny fraction of a percent—roughly 1 in 956 packs!)
Is Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising Worth Opening?
Absolutely! While hunting for the Mega Hyper Rare Greninja might be a long shot, the mid-tier hits in this set make it incredibly fun to open. You are hitting an Illustration Rare in roughly 1 out of every 9 packs, which keeps the opening experience very engaging.
Where to Buy Chaos Rising Booster Packs
If you are looking for the safest place to buy Chaos Rising booster boxes, Elite Trainer Boxes, or just want to buy the Mega Greninja ex single without testing your luck, TCGplayer.com is the perfect place. They provide a massive marketplace with transparent pricing and buyer protection so you don’t have to worry about resealed packs.
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