Nihil Zero Pull Rates: Real Odds & Top Chase Cards (M3)

Released on January 23, 2026, Nihil Zero (M3) — known in Japan as Munikis Zero — kicked off the new year as the first major Japanese Pokémon TCG expansion of 2026. Serving as a key milestone in the ongoing Mega Evolution era, this set leans heavily into darker themes, ancient lore, and a much more serious aesthetic than previous releases.

Led by the legendary ecosystem guardian, Mega Zygarde ex, Nihil Zero is also the very first “J-Regulation” set. Between the long-term sealed appeal of being an “era starter” and a breathtaking lineup of chase cards, booster boxes have been in exceptionally high demand. But before you crack into these packs, let’s look at the actual pull rates.

Based on aggregated opening data and thousands of box breaks, here is exactly what to expect from Nihil Zero.

The Best Chase Cards in Nihil Zero

TCGplayer button cards Mega Zygarde ex - 117

While previous sets focused on bright, flashy characters, Nihil Zero has built its value around atmospheric, cinematic artwork and incredible top-end rarity.

The absolute pinnacle of the set is the Mega Zygarde ex Mega Ultra Rare (MUR). Pulling the MUR is brutally difficult, making this stunning gold-plated legendary the most valuable card in the expansion by a significant margin, commanding prices well over $200.

However, the second most valuable card in the set isn’t a Pokémon at all—it’s a Supporter card. The Rosa’s Encouragement Special Art Rare (SAR) has become a massive fan favorite. The charming illustration features Rosa eating a Pikachu-shaped double-scoop ice cream cone, giving it tremendous emotional appeal for collectors.

Beyond those top two, collectors are aggressively chasing the Meowth ex SAR, the Mega Starmie ex SAR, and an incredibly strong lineup of fossil-themed Art Rares (AR) that are heavily praised for their grounded, story-driven artwork.

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Guaranteed Hit Rates in Nihil Zero Booster Boxes

Because Nihil Zero is a standard Japanese main expansion, a sealed booster box contains 30 packs (with 5 cards per pack).

If you open a fully sealed, untampered booster box, you are mathematically guaranteed to pull at least the following:

  • 1 Super Rare (SR) or better (If you are lucky, this slot upgrades to a Special Art Rare or the elusive Mega Zygarde ex MUR!)
  • 1 Item-specific Super Rare (A guaranteed Trainer/Item SR slot)
  • 3 Art Rares (AR)
  • 4 Double Rares (RR)

Nihil Zero Pull Rates Chart

Using those guaranteed booster box ratios and compiled community data, here is the estimated hit rate per individual Nihil Zero booster pack:

Card Type Ratio Percent Chance
Double Rare (RR) ~1:7.5 ~13.3% per pack
Art Rare (AR) 1:10 10%
Item Super Rare (SR) 1:30 ~3.3%
Pokemon/Supporter SR 1:30 ~3.3%
Special Art Rare (SAR) ~1:180 ~0.56%
Mega Ultra Rare (MUR) ~1:1500 <0.07%

(Note: The top rarities in this set are incredibly scarce. You will only average a Special Art Rare in roughly 1 out of every 6 booster boxes. The massive Mega Zygarde ex MUR is a 1-in-50 box pull, meaning you only have a 2% chance of finding it in a single booster box!)

Is Nihil Zero Worth Opening?

Nihil Zero offers a fantastic, highly thematic opening experience. Because the Art Rares in this set are so strong, almost every box feels rewarding even if you don’t hit the massive SAR or MUR slots.

From an investment standpoint, Nihil Zero is a stellar candidate for keeping sealed. Because it is the very first set of the new J-Regulation block, it holds prestige as an “era starter”. Combined with the brutal 1-in-50 box pull rate for the Zygarde MUR, sealed boxes are expected to age wonderfully as supply dries up.

Where to Buy Nihil Zero Booster Packs

TCGplayer button packs Nihil Zero

If you are looking for the safest place to buy Nihil Zero Japanese booster packs, sealed boxes, or the high-value singles, TCGplayer.com is the perfect place. They provide a massive marketplace with transparent pricing and buyer protection so you don’t have to worry about tampered products or resealed packs.

MEGA Dream ex Pull Rates: Real Odds & Top Chase Cards (M2a)

Released on November 28, 2025, MEGA Dream ex (M2a) is the highly anticipated year-end “High Class Pack” from the Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution era. Sitting in the same premium lineage as sets like VSTAR Universe and Shiny Treasure ex, this set has completely redefined the modern collecting experience.

The set introduces a massive pool of 57 secret rares, including the brand-new “Mega Attack Rare” (MA) rarity, which features full-art Mega Evolutions with comic-book style English attack text. With high-value chase cards and incredibly generous box hits, MEGA Dream ex is being called one of the most exciting sets of the year. Based on box ratios and pull rate data, here is exactly what to expect.

The Best Chase Cards in MEGA Dream ex

TCGplayer button cards Mega Gengar ex - 240

The most valuable cards in MEGA Dream ex revolve around popular fan favorites and stunning new rarities.

The absolute crown jewel of the set is the Mega Dragonite ex Mega Ultra Rare (MUR). As the only MUR in the entire expansion, this stunning gold card is the hardest pull in the set, making it an incredibly sought-after chase card.

Beyond the MUR, collectors are aggressively hunting the Special Art Rares (SARs). The top SAR chase is the Mega Gengar ex, driven by Gengar’s massive global fanbase. Another major highlight is the Pikachu ex SAR, an adorable masterpiece illustrated by Game Freak legend James Turner, which features a pose resembling Osaka’s famous Glico Running Man. Fans of the Pokémon Legends: Z-A video game are also chasing the SAR for Canari, a fan-favorite Trainer making her TCG debut alongside her Mega Eelektross.

(Note: If you opened early boxes of MEGA Dream ex, be sure to check your Mega Attack Rares! Error versions of cards like the Mega Charizard X ex MA and Mega Gengar ex MA exist and are worth dramatically more than their corrected prints.)

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Guaranteed Hit Rates in MEGA Dream ex Booster Boxes

Because MEGA Dream ex is a Japanese “High Class” set, a sealed booster box only contains 10 packs, but each pack is loaded with 10 cards. These boxes are famous for their guaranteed hit rates, making them incredibly satisfying to open.

If you open a fully sealed, untampered booster box, you are mathematically guaranteed to pull at least the following:

  • 1 Super Rare (SR) or better (If you are lucky, this slot upgrades to a Special Art Rare or the elusive Mega Dragonite ex MUR!)
  • 1 Mega Attack Rare (MA) (A guaranteed slot for the new comic-book style rarity)
  • 1 Item-specific Super Rare
  • 3 Art Rares (AR)

Some boxes have even been reported to include an additional SR or better, giving half of all boxes a bonus high-rarity hit!

MEGA Dream ex Pull Rates Chart

Using those guaranteed booster box ratios, here is the estimated hit rate per individual MEGA Dream ex booster pack:

Card Type Ratio Percent Chance
Mega Attack Rare (MA) 1:10 10% per pack
Art Rare (AR) 3:10 30%
Item Super Rare (SR) 1:10 10%
Pokemon/Supporter SR ~1:10 ~10%
Special Art Rare (SAR) ~1:27 ~3.7%
Mega Ultra Rare (MUR) ~1:500 ~0.2%

(Note: Getting the Mega Dragonite ex Mega Ultra Rare is incredibly difficult. Because it is the only MUR in the set, the actual chance of hitting it is roughly 1 in 500 packs, or about 1 in every 50 booster boxes.)

Is MEGA Dream ex Worth Opening?

Absolutely! MEGA Dream ex has some of the best pull rates of any current Pokémon TCG product. Every single box delivers at least 6 guaranteed hits above standard rarity (and often more).

Between the nostalgic thrill of the new Mega Attack Rares, the beautiful SAR artwork, and the sheer volume of hits per box, this is a premium opening experience. The math makes MEGA Dream ex one of the best expected value propositions in the hobby right now.

Where to Buy MEGA Dream ex Booster Packs

TCGplayer button packs Mega Dream ex

If you are looking for the safest place to buy MEGA Dream ex Japanese booster packs, sealed boxes, or the high-value single cards, TCGplayer.com is the perfect place. They provide a massive marketplace with transparent pricing and buyer protection so you don’t have to worry about resealed packs or missing out on guaranteed box hits.

Inferno X Pull Rates: Real Odds & Top Chase Cards (M2)

Inferno X (M2), released on September 26, 2025, continued the fiery momentum of the Pokémon TCG: MEGA series era. Following the dual-release of Mega Symphonia and Mega Brave, this expansion turned the heat up by focusing on powerful Fire-type Mega Evolutions, with the iconic Mega Charizard X taking center stage.

Because this set hosts one of the most expensive and difficult-to-pull Charizard cards in modern Pokémon history, Japanese Inferno X booster boxes command a significant premium over their English Phantasmal Flames counterparts. But before you rip into these highly sought-after packs or stash them for your sealed collection, you need to know exactly how brutal the pull rates actually are.

Based on aggregated community data and thousands of box openings, here is exactly what to expect.

The Best Chase Cards in Inferno X

TCGplayer button cards Mega Charizard X ex - 110

Unsurprisingly, the most valuable cards in Inferno X revolve entirely around Mega Charizard ex.

The absolute crown jewel of the set is the Mega Charizard X ex Mega Ultra Rare (MUR). This gold-plated masterpiece is considered a generational chase card. With a staggering market price hovering around ¥110,000 (~$730), it is the ultimate high-value single for serious collectors.

If you don’t hit the MUR, the Mega Charizard X ex Special Art Rare (SAR) is an incredible secondary chase, sitting comfortably around ¥80,000 (~$530). Beyond the Charizards, collectors are actively hunting the supporting cast of SARs, which include Oricorio ex, Dawn, Mega Sharpedo ex, and Mega Lopunny ex.

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Guaranteed Hit Rates in Inferno X Booster Boxes

Like other standard Japanese main expansions in the M-era, a sealed Inferno X booster box contains 30 packs (with 5 cards per pack).

If you open a fully sealed, untampered booster box, you are mathematically guaranteed to pull at least the following:

  • 1 Super Rare (SR) or better (If you are lucky, this slot upgrades to an SAR or the elusive MUR!)
  • 1 Item/Trainer Super Rare (SR) (A guaranteed secondary SR slot)
  • 3 Art Rares (AR)
  • 4-5 Double Rares (RR)

Inferno X Pull Rates Chart

Using those guaranteed booster box ratios and aggregated data, here is the estimated hit rate per individual Inferno X booster pack.

Card Type Ratio Percent Chance
Double Rare (RR) ~1:7 ~14% per pack
Art Rare (AR) 1:10 10%
Item/Trainer Super Rare (SR) 1:30 3.3%
Pokemon SR ~1:44 ~2.2%
Special Art Rare (SAR) ~1:90 ~1.1%
Mega Ultra Rare (MUR) ~1:1500 <0.07%

(Note: The Mega Charizard X ex MUR is arguably the toughest pull in the era. At a rate of roughly 1 in 50 boxes, you only have about a 2% chance of finding it in any given booster box. SARs are significantly easier, appearing in roughly 1 out of every 3 boxes.)

Is Inferno X Worth Opening?

Inferno X presents a fascinating dilemma for collectors. On one hand, the sheer value of the Mega Charizard X ex MUR makes opening packs incredibly thrilling—a single pack can yield a massive $700+ hit. The box EV (Expected Value) is unusually strong for a Pokémon set.

However, because the top-end pull rates are so brutal (1-in-50 boxes for the MUR), Inferno X is also a phenomenal product to keep sealed. Historically, sets with massive Charizard chase cards and low pull rates age exceptionally well. Whether you are hunting for high-end singles to grade or looking for a premium sealed box to hold long-term, Inferno X is a top-tier choice.

Where to Buy Inferno X Booster Packs

TCGplayer button packs Inferno X

If you are looking for the safest place to buy Inferno X Japanese booster packs, sealed boxes, or the expensive Charizard singles, TCGplayer.com is the perfect place. They provide a massive marketplace with transparent pricing and buyer protection so you don’t have to worry about tampered products or resealed packs.

Mega Brave Pull Rates: Real Odds & Top Chase Cards (M1L)

Mega Brave (M1L), released on August 1, 2025, is the highly anticipated partner set to Mega Symphonia and the other half of the dual-release that kicked off the brand-new Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution era.

This expansion centers around the powerhouse Pokémon of the Kalos region, headlined by the iconic Mega Lucario. Because this expansion features a completely new rarity tier and the legendary return of one of the most popular Supporter cards in the hobby’s history, Japanese booster boxes have been flying off shelves. But before you pay a premium for these highly sought-after packs, you need to know: how good are the pull rates?

Based on aggregated community data and booster box ratios, we have broken down exactly what to expect.

The Best Chase Cards in Mega Brave

TCGplayer button cards Mega Lucario ex - 092

Beyond Lillie and the Lucario MUR, collectors are aggressively hunting for the other Special Art Rares (SARs), including Mega Venusaur ex (087/063) and Mega Absol ex (089/063). The beautiful thing about this set is that even if you don’t hit the massive SARs, the standard Art Rares (AR) for classic Pokémon like Bulbasaur (064/063) and Vulpix (067/063) are incredibly nostalgic and highly collectible.

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Guaranteed Hit Rates in Mega Brave Booster Boxes

Because Mega Brave is a standard Japanese main expansion, a sealed booster box contains 30 packs (with 5 cards per pack). While standard sets operate differently than “High Class” sets, these boxes are loaded with guaranteed hit rates to ensure a satisfying opening experience.

If you open a fully sealed, untampered booster box, you are mathematically guaranteed to pull at least the following:

  • 1 Super Rare (SR) or better (If you are lucky, this slot upgrades to a Special Art Rare or the elusive Mega Ultra Rare!)
  • 1 Item-specific Super Rare (A guaranteed Trainer/Item SR slot)
  • 3 Art Rares (AR)
  • 4-5 Double Rares (RR)

Mega Brave Pull Rates Chart

Using those guaranteed booster box ratios, here is the estimated hit rate per individual Mega Brave booster pack. (Note: Because Mega Brave and Mega Symphonia share the exact same set structure and pull ratios, the pack odds are identical between both sets).

Card Type Ratio Percent Chance
Double Rare (RR) ~1:7 ~14% per pack
Art Rare (AR) 1:10 10%
Item Super Rare (SR) 1:30 3.3%
Pokemon/Supporter SR 1:39 ~2.5%
Special Art Rare (SAR) ~1:105 ~0.9%
Mega Ultra Rare (MUR) ~1:1650 <0.1%

(Note: Getting a Mega Ultra Rare or Special Art Rare is incredibly difficult. Because they share the same guaranteed slot as the standard Super Rares, you will average about 1 SAR every 3.5 booster boxes, and the massive MUR chase card only appears in roughly 1 out of every 55 boxes.)

Is Mega Brave Worth Opening?

Absolutely! Between the nostalgia of the Kalos region, the beautiful Kanto Art Rares like Bulbasaur, and the sheer value of chasing a new Lillie card, this set is a thrilling opening experience. Because every box guarantees both a Pokémon/Supporter SR and a dedicated Trainer Item SR, you will always walk away with multiple high-rarity hits.

Where to Buy Mega Brave Booster Packs

TCGplayer button packs Mega Brave

If you are looking for the safest place to buy Mega Brave Japanese booster packs, sealed boxes, or singles for your collection, TCGplayer.com is the perfect place. They provide a massive marketplace with transparent pricing and buyer protection so you don’t have to worry about tampered or resealed packs.

Mega Symphonia Pull Rates: Real Odds & Top Chase Cards (M1S)

Mega Symphonia (M1S), released alongside Mega Brave, marks the highly anticipated beginning of the brand-new Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution era. Paralleling the excitement of the Pokémon Legends: Z-A video game, this set has taken the hobby by storm by officially reintroducing the fan-favorite Mega Evolution mechanic.

Because this expansion introduces a completely new rarity tier and features massively popular Pokémon like Mega Gardevoir, Mega Latias, and Mega Kangaskhan, Japanese booster boxes are in incredibly high demand. But before you pay a premium for these highly sought-after packs, you need to know: how good are the pull rates?

Based on aggregated community data and thousands of booster box openings, we have broken down exactly what to expect.

The Best Chase Cards in Mega Symphonia

TCGplayer button cards Mega Gardevoir ex - 092

Unsurprisingly, the most valuable cards in Mega Symphonia revolve around the stunning new Mega Evolution designs.

The absolute crown jewel of the set is the Mega Gardevoir ex Mega Ultra Rare (MUR). This expansion introduced the MUR rarity — a brand-new style of gold card that features completely unique artwork rather than just being a gold version of a standard full art. Because the MUR is so difficult to pull, it has quickly become one of the most expensive chase cards of the new era.

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Guaranteed Hit Rates in Mega Symphonia Booster Boxes

Because Mega Symphonia is a standard Japanese main expansion, a sealed booster box contains 30 packs (with 5 cards per pack). While standard sets operate differently than “High Class” sets, these boxes are still loaded with guaranteed hit rates to ensure a satisfying opening experience.

If you open a fully sealed, untampered booster box, you are mathematically guaranteed to pull at least the following:

  • 1 Super Rare (SR) or better (If you are lucky, this slot upgrades to a Special Art Rare or the elusive Mega Ultra Rare!)
  • 1 Item-specific Super Rare (A guaranteed Trainer SR slot)
  • 3 Art Rares (AR)
  • 4-5 Double Rares (RR)

Mega Symphonia Pull Rates Chart

Using those guaranteed booster box ratios and aggregated community data, here is the estimated hit rate per individual Mega Symphonia booster pack:

Card Type Ratio Percent Chance
Double Rare (RR) ~1:7 ~14% per pack
Art Rare (AR) 1:10 10%
Item Super Rare (SR) 1:30 3.3%
Pokemon/Supporter SR 1:39 ~2.5%
Special Art Rare (SAR) ~1:105 ~0.9%
Mega Ultra Rare (MUR) ~1:1650 <0.1%

(Note: Getting a Mega Ultra Rare or Special Art Rare is incredibly difficult. Because they share the same guaranteed slot as the standard Super Rares, you will average about 1 SAR every 3.5 booster boxes, and the massive MUR chase card only appears in roughly 1 out of every 55 boxes.)

Is Mega Symphonia Worth Opening?

Absolutely! No matter which Mega Evolution you like the most, this set is a fantastic way to kick off the new era. Because every box guarantees both a Pokémon/Supporter SR and a dedicated Trainer Item SR, the pull structure feels highly rewarding.

Pulling fresh, textured Art Rares and experiencing the brand-new glitter layer on full arts makes the opening experience incredibly fun. Plus, there is always the legendary chance to beat the odds and pull the 1-in-55-box Mega Gardevoir ex MUR!

Where to Buy Mega Symphonia Booster Packs

TCGplayer button packs Mega Symphonia

If you are looking for the safest place to buy Mega Symphonia Japanese booster packs, sealed boxes, or the singles for your collection, TCGplayer.com is the perfect place. They provide a massive marketplace with transparent pricing and buyer protection so you don’t have to worry about resealed packs.

ME03: Perfect Order Pull Rates (Real Data From 3,500+ Packs)

The ME03: Perfect Order expansion is officially here, bringing a massive competitive shake-up to the Pokémon TCG. Because this set ties directly into the new Mega Evolutions from Pokémon Legends: Z-A, it has introduced some incredibly powerful new cards to the format, including format-defining Supporters and Legendary Pokémon.

With the return of the beloved Mega Evolution mechanic, collectors and players are ripping open Booster Boxes at a rapid pace. But before you buy your own packs, you need to know: what are the actual ME03: Perfect Order pull rates?

Based on a massive sample size of over 3,500 booster packs opened by the community and authentication centers, we have calculated the highly accurate, realistic odds for every rarity.

ME03: Perfect Order Pull Rates Chart

Because Perfect Order is a standard English expansion, the Pokémon Company does not guarantee specific “hit rates” per Booster Box. However, this set is proving to be surprisingly generous when it comes to standard Illustration Rares! Here is what you can expect mathematically:

Card Rarity / Type Pack Ratio Percentage Chance
Double Rare (ex & Mega ex) 1 in 5 packs 21.0%
Ultra Rare (UR) 1 in 12 packs 8.5%
Illustration Rare (IR) 1 in 9 packs 11.0%
Special Illustration Rare (SIR) 1 in 81 packs 1.2%
Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 1,786 packs 0.06%

(Note: While the 1 in 9 pull rate for standard Illustration Rares is fantastic, the top-tier Special Illustration Rares are incredibly tough to pull. At 1 in 81 packs, it takes roughly two and a half Booster Boxes just to see a single SIR!)

The Most Expensive Chase Cards in Perfect Order

TCGplayer button cards Meowth ex 121

Because Perfect Order introduces several Pokémon with their new Mega Evolutions, the secondary market is highly focused on those specific hits, alongside heavily playable Supporter cards.

Some of the most valuable and highly sought-after chase cards in the set include:

  • Meowth ex (Special Illustration Rare): This card is an absolute menace in the competitive format because it lets you pull any Supporter to your hand. Its utility combined with stunning alternate art makes it a massive chase card.
  • Rosa’s Encouragement (Special Illustration Rare): A beautiful full-art Supporter card that carries the classic “waifu tax” we see in so many modern Pokémon sets.
  • Mega Zygarde ex (SIR): The Legendary Pokémon who embodies strength in numbers gets a breathtaking, highly collectible alternate art version in this set.
  • Mega Starmie ex & Mega Clefable ex (SIR): Both of these classic Generation 1 Pokémon received incredible new Mega Evolution artwork that nostalgia collectors are aggressively hunting for.
Browse All Perfect Order Cards & Prices

Is ME03: Perfect Order Worth Opening?

Absolutely! While the rarest cards (like the elusive Mega Hyper Rares) are brutally difficult to pull, the standard hit rates make opening this set incredibly fun. With a nearly 11% chance to pull a gorgeous Illustration Rare in any given pack, you are very likely to walk away from a Booster Bundle or Elite Trainer Box with some beautiful artwork.

Whether you are a competitive player trying to pull the new Meowth ex, or a nostalgic collector looking for Mega Clefable and Mega Starmie, ME03: Perfect Order is a fantastic set to dive into.

Where to Buy Perfect Order Booster Packs

TCGplayer button packs perfect order

If you are looking for the safest place to buy ME03: Perfect Order Booster Boxes, Elite Trainer Boxes, or individual chase cards, TCGplayer.com is the perfect place. They offer a massive marketplace with transparent pricing and verified conditions so you know exactly what you are getting.

Pitch Black Pull Rates: Real Odds & Top Chase Cards (ME05)

Mega Evolution—Pitch Black has officially arrived, and it brings a much-needed dose of dark, spooky aesthetics to the Pokémon TCG. Centered around a nightmarish battle between darkness and light, this set is absolutely loaded with powerful new Mega Evolution Pokémon and competitive Trainer cards that are already shaking up the current meta.

Because this set features the highly anticipated return of Darkrai—specifically as a Mega Evolution—the hype is incredibly high. But before you start ripping open booster boxes, you need to know exactly how hard it is to pull those top-tier hits.

Based on massive sample sizes of real pack openings, we have broken down the exact pull rates you can expect from Pitch Black.

The Best Chase Cards in Pitch Black

TCGplayer button cards Mega Darkrai ex

The absolute crown jewel of Pitch Black is without a doubt the Mega Darkrai ex Special Illustration Rare (SIR), alongside its elusive Mega Hyper Rare gold variant. Darkrai is a massive fan-favorite, and the incredible artwork (including pieces by the legendary Akira Egawa) makes these the highest investment priorities in the set.

Beyond Darkrai, collectors are aggressively hunting for the stunning Slowbro Illustration Rare (087/081), which features some of the best and most charming artwork in recent memory from illustrator Mékayu. The set also features incredible cards for Mega Chandelure ex, Mega Zeraora, and Mega Excadrill ex, giving you plenty of high-value targets to chase

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Expected Hit Rates in Pitch Black

Unlike special Japanese “High Class” sets that guarantee specific hits in a box, Mega Evolution—Pitch Black is a standard English expansion. This means there are no strict guarantees in a single booster box.

However, because this set is similar in size to previous Mega Evolution era sets like Phantasmal Flames and Chaos Rising, the pull rates remain very consistent. If you are opening standard booster packs, here are the statistical odds of pulling a hit from the Rare or Reverse Holo slots.

Pitch Black Pull Rates Chart

Using aggregated data from thousands of opened packs, here is the estimated hit rate per individual Pitch Black booster pack:

Card Type Ratio Percent Chance
Double Rare (Regular ex) 1 in 5 packs 21.02%
Illustration Rare (IR) 1 in 9 packs 11.01%
Ultra Rare (Full Art ex / Supporter) 1 in 12 packs 8.30%
Special Illustration Rare (SIR) 1 in 80 packs 1.25%
Mega Hyper Rare (Gold) 1 in 1,081 packs 0.09%

(Note: Pulling the ultimate chase card is brutal this time around. The odds of pulling the specific Mega Hyper Rare Mega Darkrai ex from a single pack are a tiny fraction of a percent—roughly 1 in 1,111 packs!)

Is Mega Evolution—Pitch Black Worth Opening?

Absolutely! While hunting for the Mega Hyper Rare Darkrai might be a long shot, the mid-tier hits in this set make it incredibly fun to open. You are hitting an Illustration Rare in roughly 1 out of every 9 packs, which keeps the opening experience very engaging.

Plus, this set is highly relevant for competitive players. With massive single-prize attackers like Dhelmise and Slowbro entering the meta, and disruptive item cards like Dark Bell, standard cards from this set are going to carry solid value for players looking to upgrade their decks.

Where to Buy Pitch Black Booster Packs

TCGplayer button packs pitch black

If you are looking for the safest place to buy Pitch Black booster boxes, Elite Trainer Boxes (which include a great Zarude full-art promo), or just want to buy the Mega Darkrai ex single without testing your luck, TCGplayer.com is the perfect place. They provide a massive marketplace with transparent pricing and buyer protection so you don’t have to worry about resealed packs.

Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising Pull Rates: Real Odds & Top Chase Cards (ME04)

Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising has officially arrived, and it brings intense battles to the Pokémon TCG as the bustling city is thrown into havoc by Mega Floette ex. Filled with determination, Mega Greninja ex leads the charge alongside other powerful Mega Evolutions—like Mega Pyroar ex and Mega Dragalge ex—to ward off the threat.

Because this set features the highly anticipated return of Mega Greninja, the hype is incredibly high. But before you start ripping open booster packs, you need to know exactly how hard it is to pull those top-tier hits.

Based on massive sample sizes of real pack openings, we have broken down the exact pull rates you can expect from Chaos Rising.

The Best Chase Cards in Chaos Rising

TCGplayer button cards Mega Greninja ex

The absolute crown jewel of Chaos Rising is without a doubt the Mega Greninja ex Special Illustration Rare (SIR), alongside its elusive Mega Hyper Rare gold variant. Greninja is a massive fan-favorite, making these the highest investment priorities in the set.

Beyond Greninja, collectors are aggressively hunting for the stunning Special Illustration Rare of Mega Floette ex, as well as gorgeous Illustration Rares for classic Pokémon like Crobat and Claydol.

View Full Set List

Expected Hit Rates in Chaos Rising

Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising is a standard English expansion, meaning there are no strict guarantees in a single booster box. In fact, the pull rates are officially slightly tougher than some previous Paldean sets, with an expected hit (Double Rare or higher) coming in roughly 1 out of every 3.5 packs.

If you are opening standard booster packs, here are the statistical odds of pulling a hit from the Rare or Reverse Holo slots.

Chaos Rising Pull Rates Chart

Card Type Ratio Percent Chance
Double Rare (Regular ex) 1:5 (1 in 5 packs) 20.30%
Illustration Rare (IR) 1:9 (1 in 9 packs) 10.66%
Ultra Rare (Full Art / Supporter) 1:12 (1 in 12 packs) 8.29%
Special Illustration Rare (SIR) 1:83 (1 in 83 packs) 1.21%
Mega Hyper Rare (Gold) 1:956 (1 in 956 packs) 0.10%

(Note: Pulling the ultimate chase card is brutal this time around. The odds of pulling the specific Mega Hyper Rare Mega Greninja ex from a single pack are a tiny fraction of a percent—roughly 1 in 956 packs!)

Is Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising Worth Opening?

Absolutely! While hunting for the Mega Hyper Rare Greninja might be a long shot, the mid-tier hits in this set make it incredibly fun to open. You are hitting an Illustration Rare in roughly 1 out of every 9 packs, which keeps the opening experience very engaging.

Where to Buy Chaos Rising Booster Packs

TCGplayer button packs chaos rising

If you are looking for the safest place to buy Chaos Rising booster boxes, Elite Trainer Boxes, or just want to buy the Mega Greninja ex single without testing your luck, TCGplayer.com is the perfect place. They provide a massive marketplace with transparent pricing and buyer protection so you don’t have to worry about resealed packs.